Weekday edition
Dow's midterm jump, Uber revenue beat, and oil funds
Health care funds gained while industrial funds lagged, and how index weighting shapes your fund.
At Wednesday’s close: S&P 500 +1.58%, Nasdaq-100 +0.91%, Dow +3.03%
Dow rallies after Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress
The State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust tracks the blue-chip Dow. It surged 3.1% on Wednesday. The trigger was Tuesday's midterm elections, which gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress. The bet behind the rally: a divided Washington could make big policy changes harder to pass and bring more political certainty. By the afternoon, the Dow was on course for its best day since April 9, 2025, when President Donald Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs.
Oil moved the other way. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, fell 7.5% to $88.84 a barrel, and the energy sector fund tumbled 4.7% with it. The financial sector fund surged 3.5% and the communication services fund 3.5%. The technology sector fund was little changed. On $100,000, the Dow fund added $3,100, against $1,580 for an S&P 500 fund.
For readers
What it means for you: The Dow's rally after Democrats won both chambers of Congress skipped the industrial sector fund, which lost $1,090 on every $100,000 held. Health care funds went the other way, adding $3,060 on the same stake, and consumer staples funds added $3,360. For a broad holder, $100,000 in an S&P 500 fund has added $1,430 so far this week. The question is whether the bet on a divided Washington holds up against fresh data; October consumer prices, due Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, may answer it.
Markets
Wednesday’s close
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,688.62 | +1.58% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 28,437.17 | +0.91% |
| Dow | 53,356.12 | +3.03% |
| 10-Yr | 4.90% | −5 bp |
| Bitcoin (24 hr)As of this edition | $80,375 | +2.68% |
The day ahead
Thursday’s setup
After Wednesday's post-midterm rally, the week turns to labor data: claims and productivity today, the October jobs report Friday, then October consumer prices on Tuesday.
8:30 a.m. ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims. The Labor Department counted 194,000 new filings in the week ended Oct. 24. The line that matters is continuing claims, the people still collecting benefits, because it shows whether laid-off workers are finding new jobs. A rise in filings could add to the case for lower rates and, over time, cheaper credit-card and auto-loan borrowing; a drop could work against it.
8:30 a.m. ET Productivity and Costs (preliminary), third quarter. The line that matters for inflation is third-quarter unit labor costs. If labor costs per unit of output climb faster than productivity, businesses may pass them on as higher prices, which could keep the Fed cautious and borrowing costs high. Faster productivity growth could let wages rise without feeding inflation, a backdrop that could support lower rates for mortgage and loan borrowers.
After close Airbnb earnings. Airbnb is worth $74 billion and makes up 0.08% of the combined value of the 500 largest U.S. companies. Its report matters far more to its shareholders than to a broad index fund. The results could show whether travelers kept booking stays at the same pace in the latest quarter. They could also show what the company expects for holiday-season demand, and whether costs grew faster than revenue.
Fri 8:30 a.m. ET Employment Situation (jobs report), October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 29,000 jobs added in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings is the line that matters for inflation. Mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell 5 basis points to 4.90% on Wednesday. Weaker hiring could add to the case for Fed rate cuts and lower borrowing costs; strong hiring and wages could work against it.
If you own
Microsoft shares: Microsoft surged 6.7% and added $260 billion in market value, taking the company to $4.1 trillion. On $100,000 held directly, the day added $6,680. Microsoft accounts for 4.6% of the value of the 500 largest U.S. companies, and its gain added $306 to $100,000 spread across them by size. The question is how much of your money rides on one company; your account's holdings list may show it.
Consumer discretionary funds rose 4.3%, adding $4,260 on every $100,000 held. These funds own retailers, carmakers, restaurants and other companies that sell things people can put off buying. A technology sector fund, by contrast, was little changed. The question is whether shoppers are still spending heading into the holidays; the Commerce Department's next retail sales report could show it.
Oil funds lost $8,070 on every $100,000 held, as the oil fund tumbled 8.1%. The fund tracks oil futures, contracts to buy crude at a set later date, not the price you pay at the pump. A lasting drop could ease gasoline prices. The question is whether it lasts long enough to reach the pump; weekly gasoline price data from the Energy Information Administration could show it.
Need to know
Top stories
- 1
MCD · +6.53% McDonald's rallies as profit beats estimates and U.S. sales improve. McDonald's shares surged 6.5% after adjusted earnings of $3.57 a share beat the $3.38 Wall Street expected, the company reported. CEO Chris Kempczinski said U.S. comparable sales, which strip out new openings, turned positive in September and October. McDonald's plans to test value menu options at 1,900 U.S. restaurants ahead of a nationwide rollout in early 2027. He expects food and paper costs to rise in 2027. McDonald's makes up 0.22% of the 500 largest U.S. companies' combined value; its gain added $14 to $100,000 spread across them by size. Read more
- 2
LLY · +0.61% Novo Nordisk raises outlook as Wegovy pill drives sales beat. Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 forecast after third-quarter sales of $11.90 billion beat the $11.39 billion Wall Street expected, the company reported. Obesity drug sales, led by the Wegovy pill, climbed 22% excluding currency swings. Diabetes sales fell. CEO Mike Doustdar told Reuters Novo has held its ground since Eli Lilly launched a rival pill. Lilly rose 0.6% to close at its 52-week high. Lilly is 1.5% of the 500 largest U.S. companies' combined value; its gain added $9 to $100,000 spread across them by size. Read more
- 3
UBER · +4.91% Uber rallies after revenue beat despite adjusted earnings miss. Uber shares surged 4.9% after third-quarter revenue of $14.77 billion topped the $14.70 billion Wall Street expected, the company reported. Adjusted earnings of 88 cents a share missed the 96 cents analysts forecast. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said rising fuel costs and driver shortages in markets such as India, Brazil and Canada held back ride-hailing growth. Management said those trends improved in October. Delivery gross bookings, the total value of orders, climbed 22%. On $100,000 held in Uber, the day added $4,910. Read more
AI corner
Three changes that matter
Topics: Chips
AMD expects data centers to drive most of its 2027 sales
AMD expects data centers to bring in more than 80% of its revenue in 2027, CEO Lisa Su said on the company's earnings call. The shares jumped 1.0%, a move that added $9 to $100,000 spread across the 500 largest U.S. companies by value.
Topics: Big Tech
Big Tech buybacks shrink as AI data center spending eats cash
Buybacks at Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle fell to $4.4 billion in the September quarter, the lowest since 2017, The Kobeissi Letter said in a post on X. Smaller buybacks could remove a steady buyer of the biggest stocks in your index fund as their cash shifts to data centers.
Topics: Chips
Arista lifts its AI networking target for 2027
Arista expects 2027 revenue of about $18.5 billion and sales of its AI networking gear to reach about $7 billion, the company said with its third-quarter results. Shares rose 5.0%; scale-up networking, a newer product line, may not add meaningfully until 2028, CEO Jayshree Ullal said.
How it works
Index weighting
Why the Dow's big rally may look smaller in your 401(k). Many 401(k) funds track the S&P 500, which weights the biggest U.S. companies by market value, so the giants move it most. The Dow tracks a short list of blue chips. On Wednesday the Dow surged 3.0%, adding $3,030 to $100,000 in a Dow fund. The same stake in an S&P 500 fund added $1,580, and a Nasdaq-100 fund $910. The headline index and your statement can tell different stories when the largest companies lag a rally.
Coming up
Friday
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, November (preliminary). The preliminary November reading could include households surveyed after Tuesday's midterm elections gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress. Its inflation-expectations gauge may matter for savers and borrowers, since it can shape interest rates.
Consumer Credit, September. September's tally shows how fast Americans took on credit-card, auto and student debt. A faster pace could mean households are leaning on borrowing to keep spending, which matters if you carry a card balance.
Moderna earnings. Moderna surged 13.1% in the latest session to $258.38, its 52-week high, adding $12 billion in market value. The quarterly report may show whether results back up that run.
The close
The big picture. Wednesday's post-election gains spread well beyond big technology, which was little changed. Real estate funds rose 3.3% and materials jumped 2.5%. The longer view is closer than October suggested. The Nasdaq-100 tumbled 6.7% last month and has edged up 0.2% in November, yet it leads this year at 12.6%. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% in October and is up 12.3% for the year. The Dow gained 1.7% in October and 11.0% this year.
On the calendar. After the consumer price report, October producer prices arrive Friday, Nov. 13, 8:30 a.m. ET. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tracks Fed rate expectations, fell 3 basis points to 4.58%. Firm readings could keep money-market yields near the 4.21% that 3-month Treasury bills pay and variable-rate loans costly; softer ones might ease both.
Not investment advice.