Cloudflare's late rally, Airbnb beat, and October hiring data

Cloudflare rallies after hours on a forecast beat and higher guidance

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Today's jobs report and consumer surveys set up Tuesday's October inflation report, then jobless claims Thursday and producer prices Friday, all feeding the Fed's next rate decision.

• VOO shares: VOO tumbled 4.4% on Thursday, losing $4,370 on every $100,000 held. The fall erased $45 billion of market value, leaving $990 billion. VOO accounts for 1.2% of the value of the 500 largest U.S. companies, so its drop took $50 from $100,000 spread across them by size. If you own the shares directly, the hit to you could depend on how much of your portfolio rides on this one holding.

• Small-company funds lost $4,590 on every $100,000 held on Thursday, as the IWM fund tumbled 4.6%. That was more than the $4,360 an S&P 500 index fund lost on the same $100,000. The selling was broad: 960 stocks fell while 142 rose. For a small-company fund, the question is whether lower short-term Treasury yields might ease borrowing costs for smaller firms.

• Savings accounts and CDs tend to track short-term yields, and the 2-year Treasury yield slid 12 basis points on Thursday to 4.46%. The 2-year reflects what traders expect from the Federal Reserve's rate, so a drop this size points to bets on lower Fed rates. Banks may offer less on new CDs if that move holds. The question is whether the Fed's next rate decision matches those bets.

1. 1

   Southern Company raises 2026 profit outlook on rising power demand. Southern Company raised its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $4.70 per share, from a previous range of $4.50 to $4.60, above the $4.59 analysts expected. Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.94 a share beat the $1.71 estimate. Total electricity sales rose 7.3% on warmer weather, customer growth and demand from large commercial and industrial customers, the company said. The soft spot: Southern expects fourth-quarter earnings of 30 cents a share, below the 45 cents Wall Street expected. Rising power demand could support earnings at utilities, a common holding in income funds. Read more

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   ABNB · −3.54% Airbnb rallies after hours on earnings and revenue beat. Airbnb shares surged 11.3% after hours to $188.87 on Thursday, after the stock tumbled 3.5% in the regular session before the report. Quarterly earnings of $3.16 per share beat the $2.84 analysts expected, and revenue of $4.87 billion topped the $4.75 billion estimate. Gross bookings, the total value of stays and services booked, rose 21% from a year earlier. Airbnb guided fourth-quarter revenue to $3.22 billion to $3.28 billion, above the $3.16 billion estimate. At 0.08% of the combined value of the 500 largest U.S. companies, Airbnb barely registers in a broad index fund. Read more

3. 3

   Ralph Lauren flags weaker European shoppers despite earnings beat. Ralph Lauren shares traded lower Thursday even though the company beat estimates and raised its full-year outlook. Softer third-quarter revenue guidance weighed on the stock. Adjusted earnings of $4.64 per share topped the $4.26 Wall Street expected. Asia revenue rose 28%, but European comparable retail sales, from stores open at least a year, declined 1%. CFO Justin Picicci cited weaker store traffic, falling consumer confidence and cost-of-living pressure in Europe. Strain on price-sensitive outlet shoppers could be an early read on how stretched European consumers are. Read more

• Topics: Startups, Markets

  Anthropic faces investor pushback on its IPO valuation after the selloff

  Investors lining up for Anthropic's IPO told the Wall Street Journal its valuation likely needs to fall, with one putting it closer to $1 trillion. A cheaper debut could reset what buyers pay for AI growth, including the AI names inside your tech fund.

• Topics: Regulation, Chips

  Citi data shows local bans on U.S. data centers spreading fast

  Citi Research data shared by The Information counts U.S. data center bans and pauses topping 500 by October, up from roughly 20 last December. Local limits could slow the build-out that chipmakers such as Nvidia and Broadcom, big holdings in most tech funds, depend on.

• Topics: Big Tech

  IREN grows AI cloud revenue but delays its contracted capacity target

  IREN said AI cloud revenue rose 182% from the prior quarter to $200 million, though Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said its contracted annualized revenue target slipped from year-end to January. IREN builds data centers for Microsoft, so its timing could show how fast Big Tech's AI spending becomes working capacity.

Why the Fed's rate moves your savings but not your mortgage. The Fed sets one rate directly: the overnight rate banks charge each other, which steers card and savings rates within weeks. Investors set the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgages track, by betting on inflation and growth over the long run. Cloudflare's after-hours price of $280.14 reflects profits expected for years, and distant profits are valued against long-term yields. A Fed cut may move savings rates quickly. Mortgages and growth-stock funds answer to the 10-year.

Fed funds rate in the glossary

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The big picture. Thursday's selling ran well past technology. Only 13 percent of stocks rose, and economy-sensitive funds fell hardest: industrials tumbled 4.1%, consumer discretionary 3.8%. The Nasdaq-100 has lost 6.2% this month after a 6.7% October drop, leaving its gain for the year at 5.5%. The S&P 500, down 0.9% in October and 3.0% since, is up 7.4% this year. The Dow gained 1.7% in October, has lost 0.5% since and is up 7.2% for the year.

On the calendar. Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET brings the October consumer price index, alongside Real Earnings, a read on whether paychecks kept pace. Money-market funds track Treasury bills, and the 3-month yield fell 4 basis points to 4.17% on Thursday. A hot reading might halt that slide; a cool one might extend it, easing credit-card rates too.