The Week Ahead
Week ahead: Consumer prices, Cisco earnings, and your bond fund
A hotter October reading could lift Treasury bill yields, and rates on new CDs with them.
In the week ended Friday: S&P 500 −2.68%, Nasdaq-100 −4.91%, Dow −0.94%
The big question
This week
October's consumer price report tests the Fed's next rate move
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the consumer price index for October on Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The index tracks what households pay for a basket of everyday goods and services, from rent to groceries. The Fed's benchmark overnight rate sits in a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Going in, the 10-year Treasury yield fell last week while stocks lost ground: $100,000 in an S&P 500 index fund lost $2,680.
A hotter reading could lift Treasury yields, which help set borrowing costs such as the 30-year mortgage rate, now 7.18%. Higher yields could also weigh on tech companies, much of whose value rests on profits expected years away. Last week, $100,000 in a Nasdaq-100 index fund lost $4,910. A cooler reading could ease both pressures. The same release includes real earnings, or wages after inflation, showing whether paychecks are keeping up.
For readers
What it means for you: Short-term yields moved more than long ones on Friday. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.51%, while the 30-year edged up 1 basis point. The 3-month Treasury bill yield edged up 2 basis points to 4.19%. Money market funds and new short-term CDs tend to follow those bill rates. Stock funds had a quieter Friday: on $100,000 in an S&P 500 fund, Friday added $310. A hotter October reading on Tuesday could lift bill yields further, and savings rates with them. The Fed's October minutes follow Wednesday, Nov. 18, at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Your money this week
Rates that reach you
30-year fixed mortgage rate
Freddie Mac, Nov. 5
7.18%
−6 bp on the week
The rate sets the monthly payment on a new home loan or refinance. This week's inflation reports could move Treasury yields, which lenders use as a guide for mortgage pricing.
10-year Treasury yield
Friday's close
4.86%
−8 bp on the week
This yield guides what lenders charge on mortgages, auto loans and business debt. It may react to this week's October consumer and producer price reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Regular gasoline, U.S. average
EIA, week of Nov. 2
$4.15
−2.72% on the week
Fuel is one of the most visible costs in a household budget. Energy prices also feed the October consumer price report due this week, which could color how the Fed reads inflation.
Fed funds target range
Federal Reserve, as of Nov. 5
3.75%–4.00%
The Fed's target range drives rates on credit cards, savings accounts and home equity lines. This week's inflation data could influence how the Fed approaches its next decision.
The week ahead
Week of Nov. 9
No major scheduled releases.
8:30 a.m. ET Consumer Price Index, October. Credit card rates follow the Fed, and this October inflation reading could shift what markets anticipate from the central bank's next rate decision.
8:30 a.m. ET Real Earnings, October. Out the same morning as the consumer price report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' October figures could show whether paychecks kept up with prices heading into the holiday shopping season.
No major scheduled releases.
8:30 a.m. ET Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims. In a week focused on inflation, layoff filings could show whether the Fed faces a softer job market alongside price pressures, the trade-off behind its next rate decision.
After close Earnings: Cisco. Cisco's results on Thursday after the close could offer a read on corporate spending on networking equipment, including gear for artificial intelligence data centers.
8:30 a.m. ET Producer Price Index, October. October producer prices may hint whether higher business costs could reach store shelves, adding another read on inflation in the same week as the consumer price report.
If you own
What to watch
Index funds own Cisco in proportion to its size, and the company carries a market value of $370 billion. Cisco reports results after the close on Thursday, Nov. 12. Any reaction could reach fund prices on Friday. The question is whether one company of that size can move a broad fund much; Friday's trading may show it.
Bond funds got help from last week's drop in the 10-year Treasury yield described above; bond prices move opposite to yields. October's Consumer Price Index arrives Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims Thursday and October's Producer Price Index Friday. The question is whether those readings push yields back up, which could undo part of last week's gain for your bond fund.
Sector funds focused on technology get a test on Thursday, Nov. 12, when Cisco reports results after the close. A sector fund holds companies from just a slice of the market, so a big Cisco move could sway it more than it sways a broad index fund. The question is whether Cisco's results lift or weigh on its industry peers; Friday's trading in technology funds may give an early read.
Earnings to watch
Largest reporters
Thu · After close Cisco CSCO · $370 billion market value. Cisco reports Thursday after the close, in the same week as the October inflation reports. Investors may look to its results and outlook for a read on business spending on networking equipment, including gear for data centers.
Weekend watch
While markets were closed
Bitcoin +0.04% since Friday, 4 p.m. ET, at $75,819.
Elon Musk said Tesla will add a production shift to clear pending Cybertruck orders before its Texas factory line moves to Cybercab production. Tesla shares could react Monday as investors weigh the change in output.
Binance replaced chief financial officer Kaiser Ng with Justin Yek, days after a major security breach at the crypto exchange. The change could weigh on crypto prices and crypto-linked stocks when U.S. markets open Monday.
Stock index futures resume trading at 6 p.m. ET tonight.
AI corner
Three changes that matter
Topics: Big Tech, Chips
OpenAI keeps data center spending plans despite midterm voter opposition
OpenAI finance chief Sarah Friar said the company will keep expanding computing capacity to meet customer demand, despite voter opposition to new data centers in the midterms. That spending goes to chipmakers and cloud providers held in most index funds, so steady plans could support their orders.
Topics: Chips, Markets
Roundhill Memory ETF loses investor money despite strong Micron results
Investors pulled money out of the Roundhill Memory ETF faster over the past month, ETF Database data shows, even as Micron and SanDisk reported strong revenue and profit growth. For a tech fund holding Micron, the question is whether that selling reflects doubts about AI memory demand.
Topics: Chips
Tesla and SpaceX build Austin research chip fab to speed design work
Elon Musk said at the Baron Investment Conference, and in a post on X, that Terafab, the research chip fab Tesla and SpaceX are building in Austin, may cut what would normally take a year to a month. Tesla shareholders own part of that chip bet.
How it works
Inflation
Why Tuesday's inflation report can reach your mortgage and your index fund. The consumer price index tracks what households pay for a fixed basket of goods and services, from groceries to rent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October's reading on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Its change over a year is the headline inflation rate, and it shapes expectations for the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. A surprise in either direction could move those expectations, and with them mortgage rates, bond yields and your index fund.
The close
The big picture. This is an inflation week. October consumer prices arrive Tuesday, producer prices follow Friday, and Cisco reports Thursday after the close. Markets start the week with a cushion: even after last week's tech-led selling, the S&P 500 has gained 7.8% this year and the Nasdaq-100 6.9%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Tuesday may set the tone. A hotter reading could push Treasury yields higher and press on tech again. A cooler one might ease that pressure.
On the calendar. October retail sales arrive Tuesday, Nov. 17, 8:30 a.m. ET, showing whether shoppers kept spending through the month. Housing starts and permits follow Wednesday, Nov. 18, 8:30 a.m. ET, an early read on homebuilding and mortgage demand that could matter for buyers and anyone hoping to refinance.
See you Monday.
Not investment advice.