Weekday edition
Iran's Hormuz offer, Apple's late slide, and your fuel costs
Gold miners rallied as oil and Treasury yields fell, and next Tuesday's inflation report may show why.
At Monday’s close: S&P 500 −0.51%, Nasdaq-100 −1.39%, Dow +0.41%
VanEck gold miners fund jumps as Iran offers faster Hormuz plan
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF jumped 2.7% after Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days if Washington accepts its terms. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with Qatari mediators had produced a faster plan, according to a post on X by The Middle East Letter. The conditions are steep, from lifting the U.S. naval blockade to cutting American forces to pre-war levels. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $96.63 a barrel by mid-afternoon in New York, and Brent fell to $104.77.
Homebuilders, regional banks and airline stocks also rallied, and the link runs through the bond market. Higher oil had lifted inflation, then Treasury yields, then mortgage rates, keeping home buyers away. The 10-year yield has risen about 95 basis points since the war began in late February; on Monday it fell to 4.90%. The energy sector fund tumbled 4.0%. The gold miners fund added $630 million in market value but remains 31.7% below its 52-week high.
For readers
What it means for you: Gold pays no interest, so lower yields can make it more appealing. On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points and the GLD gold fund jumped 1.6%. On $100,000 in the VanEck gold miners fund, the day added $2,670. The same stake in an S&P 500 fund lost $510. The miners fund still closed at $79.15, well under its 52-week high of $115.84. October consumer prices, due Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET, may show whether cheaper oil is easing the inflation that pushed yields up.
Read the full story, XHB price history and analyst ratings, KRE price history and analyst ratings
Markets
Monday’s close
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 27,989.82 | −1.39% |
| Dow | 51,983.98 | +0.41% |
| 10-Yr | 4.91% | −3 bp |
| Bitcoin (24 hr)As of this edition | $76,498 | −2.08% |
The day ahead
Tuesday’s setup
Job openings data and AMD's results open a week that builds to Friday's October jobs report, with the consumer price index following next Tuesday.
Before open Shopify earnings. Options prices imply a bigger post-earnings swing for Shopify than for any other company on a preview list of this week's reporters, which also includes McDonald's and Canadian Natural Resources. An implied move is the price change options traders are paying to protect against. The stock fell 0.8% on Monday and sits 12.8% below its 52-week high of $179.22. The question is whether the report moves shares as far as traders are bracing for.
10:00 a.m. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, September. Quits are the line that matters: people leave jobs when they are confident of better pay elsewhere, and that feeds wage growth. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tracks Fed expectations, rose 3 basis points on Monday to 4.59%. A hotter reading could hold credit-card and auto-loan rates higher for longer. A cooler one may help the case for Fed cuts, though savings yields could slip too.
10:00 a.m. Full Report - Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders, September. The revised durable goods numbers matter most, especially orders for business equipment outside aircraft, a read on whether companies are still investing. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell 3 basis points on Monday to 4.91%. Stronger orders could nudge that yield back up. Weaker ones might add to the case for lower rates, and the release lands alongside the job openings data.
After close AMD earnings. AMD lost $62 billion in market value on Monday as its shares tumbled 7.5%. Analysts expect revenue of $13.09 billion, up from $9.25 billion a year earlier, and earnings per share of $1.95. Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore said data centers will likely matter more than PCs, which he put at around 20% of revenue. The question is whether server demand can outweigh the weak PC outlook Intel gave last week.
After close Booking Holdings earnings. Booking shares surged 3.8% on Monday, a day when oil fell and consumer discretionary stocks jumped 2.4%. Even so, the stock sits 30.0% below its 52-week high. Cheaper fuel could make trips less costly over time, but the results cover what travelers already spent. The question is whether travel demand held up, and what the company says about bookings for the months ahead.
If you own
Oil funds and fuel costs moved the same way on Monday. The United States Oil Fund, which tracks crude oil futures, tumbled 7.1% and lost $7,080 on every $100,000 held. Cheaper crude could eventually mean lower prices at the pump, though gas stations may pass declines on slowly. For drivers, the question is whether the lower price lasts long enough to reach the pump.
Sector funds split hard on Monday. Consumer discretionary funds, which hold retailers, automakers and restaurant chains, jumped 2.4%, adding $2,410 on $100,000 held. Energy funds lost $3,960 on the same stake. For someone with both, the question is whether cheaper fuel keeps shifting money from oil producers toward companies that sell to shoppers.
Exxon Mobil shares tumbled 4.0% on Monday, costing $4,050 on every $100,000 held and erasing $31 billion of market value. The company is still worth $730 billion. Most broad index funds own Exxon, so index-fund holders could feel the move too. For direct holders, the question is whether that lost value returns before the company's next quarterly report.
Need to know
Top stories
- 1
Apple slides after hours despite beating revenue forecasts. Apple shares slid 2.8% in after-hours trading Monday, to $328.81, even though results topped forecasts. The company reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.48 billion, against analyst estimates of $113.39 billion. Earnings per share came in at $2.10, versus $1.98 expected. CEO John Ternus said Services revenue reached an all-time high. Apple's market value of $4.9 trillion gives it heavy weight in S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index funds. A weaker open could pull on both. Read more
- 2
Tech · −1.34% Meta slides as S&P turns negative on its credit outlook. Meta shares slid 1.3% Monday after S&P Global Ratings cut the outlook on Meta's AA- credit rating to negative. A negative outlook signals a downgrade could follow. S&P cited rising debt and uncertainty over how long heavy AI spending could keep free cash flow negative. It expects capital spending of about $140 billion in 2026, rising above $225 billion in 2027. Meta spokesperson Kamran Mumtaz told Bloomberg its credit profile remains very strong. The stock closed at $606.73, below the $625 price of Meta's recent $25 billion share sale. Read more
- 3
Telecom · −18.59% Lumentum tumbles as Marvell agrees to an all-stock takeover. Marvell agreed Monday to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal it valued at about $115 billion. Both stocks fell: Lumentum tumbled 18.6% and Marvell tumbled 12.7%. Lumentum holders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each share they own. In an all-stock deal, the payout tracks the buyer's share price. Marvell's drop shrinks what Lumentum holders stand to receive. Marvell said it expects more than $1 billion in annual cost savings. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. Read more
AI corner
Three changes that matter
Topics: Models, Startups
Anthropic files amended IPO papers showing steep revenue growth
Anthropic reported $16.95 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 1,127% from a year earlier, in its amended IPO filing ahead of a planned Nasdaq listing. The filing gives investors a rare look at what an AI model maker earns, the demand behind chip stocks in your tech fund.
Topics: Big Tech, Regulation
Amazon faces a local vote that could block an Ohio data center
Amazon faces a Tuesday vote in Ohio on a measure that could block its planned $2 billion data center, one of 41 data-center ballot measures in 10 states. Voters backed tighter limits in every such measure decided this year, a risk for building plans at Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet.
Topics: Chips, Markets
SpaceX borrows for AI chips as Ackman warns on debt load
SpaceX announced it was raising $40 billion in debt for AI computing and chips, and Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman said its goals might require far more. Ackman called pure-play AI cloud renters, a group that includes CoreWeave, more sensitive to borrowing costs; CoreWeave stock tumbled 8.6% Monday.
How it works
Sector vs. market
Why one sector can climb on a day your index fund slips. The S&P 500 mixes many industries weighted by company size, so one sector's gain can be outweighed elsewhere. On Monday the VanEck Gold Miners ETF jumped 2.7%, yet $100,000 in an S&P 500 fund lost $510. On a day oil fell, gold miners, homebuilders and airline stocks rose while energy producers declined. A sector fund rides one slice of the economy, while your index fund adds every slice together.
The close
The big picture. November opened with the selling packed into technology. The tech sector fund slid 2.9%, and the Nasdaq-100 has slid 1.4% this month. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.5%, while the Dow has risen 0.4%. Money moved into older corners of the market instead: financials jumped 1.9% and materials jumped 1.8%. More stocks rose than fell, so the damage stayed narrow.
On the calendar. October consumer prices arrive Tuesday, Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET. Short-term rates are already moving. The 3-month Treasury bill yield, a guide to what money-market funds pay, rose 5 basis points to 4.21%. A hotter reading could hold cash yields up and keep variable-rate loans costly. A cooler one might ease both.
Not investment advice.