Weekday edition
Fed rate hold, Alphabet earnings miss, and money-market yields
ServiceNow and Vertiv moved in opposite directions after their latest quarterly results.
At Wednesday’s close: S&P 500 +0.28%, Nasdaq-100 +0.55%, Dow +0.19%
Federal Reserve holds rates as Warsh declines to promise December hike
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, even though some officials voted for a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to commit to a December increase. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on the day. The 10-year Treasury yield, the rate the government pays to borrow for a decade, rose 6 basis points to 5.05%.
Warsh said financial and credit conditions have tightened since September, as bond yields and credit spreads rose. Spreads are the extra yield riskier borrowers pay over the government. He said tighter conditions are already doing some of the work. “I don’t believe in forward guidance absent exigent circumstances,” Warsh said. Forward guidance means signalling future rate moves in advance. Officials meet again in December.
For readers
What it means for you: The Fed's hold leaves rates on most credit cards and home equity lines where they were. Those rates are tied to the prime rate, which moves when the Fed changes its benchmark. Warsh would not commit to a December hike. The PCE price index, due today at 8:30 a.m. ET, may help shape that decision.
Read the full story, CRWV price history and analyst ratings, HYG price history and analyst ratings
Markets
Wednesday’s close
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | +0.28% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,813.16 | +0.55% |
| Dow | 52,475.10 | +0.19% |
| 10-Yr | 5.05% | +6 bp |
| Bitcoin (24 hr)As of this edition | $79,946 | −1.74% |
The day ahead
Thursday’s setup
The Federal Reserve held rates steady yesterday and declined to commit to a December hike. Today brings the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed watches, plus an early read on third-quarter growth.
8:30 a.m. GDP, third quarter (advance estimate). The report gives an early estimate of how fast the economy grew last quarter; a stronger reading could add to the case for a rate hike, while a weaker one could ease it.
8:30 a.m. Personal Income and Outlays, September. Its PCE price index is the inflation gauge the Fed watches; a hotter reading could keep a December hike in play, while a cooler one could ease borrowing costs.
10:00 a.m. Consumer Expenditures, annual 2025. The report shows how households divided their spending last year, a backward-looking picture that may matter less to markets than the morning's inflation data.
After close Amazon earnings. Shareholders get the company's latest results after the closing bell, so any reaction in the shares would show up in late trading rather than the regular session.
Before open Caterpillar earnings. The results arrive before the opening bell, giving shareholders an update on the company's business before regular trading begins.
If you own
Fortinet shares tumbled 25.7% in after-hours trading, with the last price shown at $174.08. Late trading is thin, and the move may change. The regular open may give the fuller verdict.
Money-market funds and CDs could pay a little less over time after the 3-month Treasury bill yield fell 4 basis points to 4.18%. That bill yield is a common yardstick for cash, and money-market payouts may drift with it.
Bond funds may have lost some value as the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.05%. Bond prices move opposite to yields, and higher long-term yields could also feed into mortgage quotes.
Sector funds moved in opposite directions. The technology sector fund rose 0.8% and the utilities sector fund fell 0.8%. Utilities often behave like bonds, and higher long-term yields may weigh on them.
Need to know
Top stories
- 1
Alphabet tumbles after hours as quarterly results miss estimates. Alphabet's Class A shares tumbled 10.0% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the Google parent's third-quarter report. Revenue and earnings came in below analyst estimates. Revenue still grew from a year earlier, and its cloud business posted strong growth, according to reports. After-hours prices may shift when regular trading resumes Thursday. Read more
- 2
Tech · −3.00% ServiceNow tumbles after hours on mixed quarterly results. ServiceNow shares tumbled 18.1% in after-hours trading after the software company's third-quarter report. Revenue came in just above analyst estimates. Adjusted earnings per share fell short of forecasts. The stock had already dropped 3.0% during the regular session, before the report came out. Read more
- 3
Tech · +16.48% Vertiv rallies on record revenue beat and rising orders. Vertiv shares surged 16.5% on Wednesday after the data center equipment maker reported its largest revenue beat as a public company. Orders rose sharply, easing worries about supply chain problems from its previous report. The rally added $13 billion to its market value. Bank of America Global Research kept a bullish view and sees further upside. Read more
AI corner
Three changes that matter
Topics: Regulation, Deals
Justice Department examines Nvidia's planned Hugging Face purchase
According to reports, the questions about AI competition come as antitrust enforcers pursue a long-running probe of Nvidia's deals and customer dealings, which could add uncertainty to the purchase.
Topics: Chips, Markets
SK Hynix says its shares are undervalued after record AI memory profits
The chipmaker's finance chief said the share price does not reflect its earnings, and the company plans dividends and share cancellations for 2026.
Topics: Chips
Flex raises full-year outlook as AI data center demand lifts results
The manufacturer beat analyst estimates and raised its forecast, the company said, a sign that AI infrastructure spending may be reaching suppliers beyond chipmakers.
How it works
Interest rates
Only the surprise moves prices. When most people expect a decision, prices tend to reflect it before it arrives. That shared expectation is the consensus, the average forecast that works as a bar to clear. The gap between outcome and bar, not the news itself, is what tends to move markets. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, and Chair Kevin Warsh declined to commit to a December increase. He said tighter borrowing conditions are already doing some of the work. The same test could come up at each Fed meeting and earnings season.
Coming up
Friday
Employment Cost Index, third quarter. The broadest quarterly measure of wage and benefit costs, which the Fed watches for inflation pressure.
Chevron earnings
ExxonMobil earnings. Results are due before the opening bell.
The close
The big picture. Stocks kept climbing through the Fed's decision. The S&P 500 has risen 1.6% this week. Bond markets moved differently: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 5.05%. Quarterly results are pulling big names in opposite directions. Alphabet and ServiceNow fell after hours, while Vertiv rallied. For savers, higher long-term yields can mean more income from new bonds.
On the calendar. September job openings arrive Tuesday, Nov. 3, 10:00 a.m. ET. The October jobs report follows on Friday, Nov. 6, 8:30 a.m. ET. Hiring and wage figures could shape the Fed's next move, and with it what cash earns and loans cost.
Not investment advice.